EpiForecasts group (https://epiforecasts.io)
Akira Endo, Hannah Choi, James Munday,
Kath Sherratt, Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin
Johannes Bracher, Nick Reich and other collaborators
Being able to predict does not mean we can explain. For that, we needs a mechanistic model.
We can compare forecasts using
proper scoring rules, e.g.
\[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\]
We can compare forecasts using proper scoring rules, e.g. \[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\] but these only tell us about relative quality of forecasts
Munday et al., in prep
Hans Rosling, Liberia, 2014